Which way will Landrieu go?

Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana -- one of three Democratic swing votes in the Senate over health reform -- says today is the day: She will announce whether she supports the bill unveiled by Sen. Harry Reid this week ("support" meaning whether she'll help Democrats get the 60 votes they need to override a Republican filibuster).What will she say? Right now, 78% of readers on Congress.org's Predict-a-Vote are predicting Landrieu will say "yes" (vote here), giving her slightly higher odds that Democratic fence-sitters Sens. Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) and Ben Nelson (Neb.).

But close followers of Landrieu's ever-changing stance on health reform are less sure. In November 2008, Landrieu openly proclaimed her support for a public option in a letter to health care advocates.

Yet by October of this year -- after Town Hall uprisings and Obama's sinking poll numbers -- Landrieu boxed herself into a corner by blasting the public option as a "government-run, national, taxpayer-subsidized plan," and said she'd "never" support it.

Yet by Nov. 4, Landrieu was hopping back on the fence, telling Roll Call (sub) she was warming to a public option that raises more revenue. As of yesterday, Landrieu was sounding "positive" after a meeting with Reid.

The interesting thing about Landrieu is that her fence-sitting on health reform isn't as clearly about political survival as it is for fellow Democrats like Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, who faces a tough re-election battle next year.

Matthew Bigg of Reuters has a good piece looking at the Louisiana political landscape Landrieu faces (he briefly cites my analysis of the state's electoral situation). Obama lost big in Louisiana in 2008, and the continued displacement of thousands of African-American voters from New Orleans post-Katrina -- removing the state's most reliable Democratic voters -- have made Louisiana Democrats even more wary of stepping onto what they perceive to be dangerous political limbs.

But it's also true that, despite being an increasingly tough state for Democrats, Landrieu won re-election in 2008 by a six-point margin. Even more importantly, she won't face another election until 2014.

As Michael Tomasky writes in an interesting piece on Landrieu's counterparts in the House, the Blue Dogs, it's unclear how much a "risky" vote on health care will really hurt Democrats who hail from moderate and conservative districts. Tomasky speculates that it could cause some to lose up to a couple percentage points of support for backing health reform -- nothing to sneeze at, for sure -- but overall, it pales in comparison to the power of incumbency and other factors.

That's likely to be doubly true for Landrieu. By the time she runs again, the health reform vote will be five years old -- ancient political history. It's hard to see it proving decisive in the 2014 election.

What might be more damaging, however, is Landrieu's waffling: evidence that Landrieu supported a public option before she opposed it. If that ends up hurting Landrieu, she'll have no one to blame but herself.

Which way do YOU think Landrieu will go? What will it mean for her career? Let us know in the comments.