ANALYSIS: Were Southern Democrats against health care reform?
Based on Saturday's razor-thin 220-215 House vote, can we say Southern Democrats are friends or foes of health care reform?
It depends on how you slice the numbers (we'll be using the New York Times' excellent graphic of the 39 Democrats who voted against the measure).
Arguing on the side that Southern Dems can be summed up as "foes" is the fact that 21 of the 39 no votes -- 54% -- came from those representing districts in Southern states*.
But it's also true that out of the 62 Democrats in the South, 41 of them voted "yes." In other words, two-thirds of Southern Democrats supported health care reform.
Clearly it's a mixed bag. But drilling down to specific votes and representatives reveals some interesting stories:
* MOST INEXPLICABLE "NO" VOTE: Rep. John Barrow (GA-12). Rep. Barrow was elected by a 32-point margin in 2008 in a district that went +11% for Obama. He's a third-term incumbent and Charlie Cook's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) rates his 12th Congressional district as Democrat-friendly. On top of that, his district needs health reform: 21% of the non-elderly population is uninsured. Democrats in his district won't be happy.
* GUTSIEST "YES" VOTES: Reps. Alan Mollohan (WV-01) and Robert Berry (AR-01). Both Democrats voted yes on Saturday even though they're in districts rated as +9 Republican by Cook's PVI -- and they face challengers in 2010. Rep. Mollohan's WV-1 district went +15% for McCain in 2008; Rep. Berry's AR-01 went +21%. Look for Republicans to start ramping up challenges.
* BIGGEST SPOILER VOTES: Rep. Artur Davis (AL-07) and Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (LA-02). The Congressional Black Caucus had a perfect "yes" record, save one vote: Rep. Davis of Alabama. He comes from a district that has a +18 PVI for Democrats, so why? Answer: He's running for governor in 2010.
Rep. Cao similarly spoiled the Republican Party's attempted shutout on health care reform, casting the GOP's only yes vote. He likely realized that his overwhelmingly Democratic district in south Louisiana -- which includes New Orleans, which still faces a major health care crisis after Katrina -- wouldn't have supported a 2010 candidate who voted any other way.
* The Institute defines the South to include Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia.
It depends on how you slice the numbers (we'll be using the New York Times' excellent graphic of the 39 Democrats who voted against the measure).
Arguing on the side that Southern Dems can be summed up as "foes" is the fact that 21 of the 39 no votes -- 54% -- came from those representing districts in Southern states*.
But it's also true that out of the 62 Democrats in the South, 41 of them voted "yes." In other words, two-thirds of Southern Democrats supported health care reform.
Clearly it's a mixed bag. But drilling down to specific votes and representatives reveals some interesting stories:
* MOST INEXPLICABLE "NO" VOTE: Rep. John Barrow (GA-12). Rep. Barrow was elected by a 32-point margin in 2008 in a district that went +11% for Obama. He's a third-term incumbent and Charlie Cook's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) rates his 12th Congressional district as Democrat-friendly. On top of that, his district needs health reform: 21% of the non-elderly population is uninsured. Democrats in his district won't be happy.
* GUTSIEST "YES" VOTES: Reps. Alan Mollohan (WV-01) and Robert Berry (AR-01). Both Democrats voted yes on Saturday even though they're in districts rated as +9 Republican by Cook's PVI -- and they face challengers in 2010. Rep. Mollohan's WV-1 district went +15% for McCain in 2008; Rep. Berry's AR-01 went +21%. Look for Republicans to start ramping up challenges.
* BIGGEST SPOILER VOTES: Rep. Artur Davis (AL-07) and Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (LA-02). The Congressional Black Caucus had a perfect "yes" record, save one vote: Rep. Davis of Alabama. He comes from a district that has a +18 PVI for Democrats, so why? Answer: He's running for governor in 2010.
Rep. Cao similarly spoiled the Republican Party's attempted shutout on health care reform, casting the GOP's only yes vote. He likely realized that his overwhelmingly Democratic district in south Louisiana -- which includes New Orleans, which still faces a major health care crisis after Katrina -- wouldn't have supported a 2010 candidate who voted any other way.
* The Institute defines the South to include Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia.
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Chris Kromm
Chris Kromm is executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies and publisher of the Institute's online magazine, Facing South.