Majority of GOP "underperformers" in 2008 Congressional elections in the South
There's a conventional wisdom about the 2008 elections that Republicans did poorly everywhere in the country except the South -- solidifying the GOP's position as, so the mantra goes, "a regional party based in the South."
But many Republicans who ran for Congress in the South likely wouldn't agree.
Last week, the Swing State Project posted an excellent survey of Congressional "underperformers" in the 2008 elections -- candidates running for a U.S. House seat who did worse than their party's presidential nominee in the same Congressional district.
For example: Rep. Jim Himes, a Democrat in Connecticut's 4th district, won by only four percentage points last November. But Barack Obama won in his district by 20 -- a difference of 16 points, making Rep. Himes the biggest "underperformer" in the nation among Congressional Democratic candidates last year.
On the Republican side, 23 GOP Congressional candidates across the country similarly "underperformed" when compared to how John McCain fared in their districts. Most interesting of all, the majority of the Republicans' close shaves in Congress -- 13 of the 23 -- were in the South. Here's a chart I've compiled of Republican Southern "underperformers" in 2008:
What does it mean? Each case is unique in some way; as Swing State Project writer DavidNYC points out, many of the most vulnerable GOP representatives were first-term representatives.
Taking a broader lens, one could also say these numbers reflect the willingness of Southerners to vote for Democrats for lower-level offices, but not for president -- especially white voters, perhaps, with an African-American candidate.
Another perspective would be that 2008 showed that the Southern GOP "brand" is not nearly as solid as many suggest, and the region remains highly politically competitive.
One interesting sidenote: I thought part of the issue might be race, and the degree to which Obama had coattails in a Congressional election. But race turned out not to be a big factor in this case. Republican candidates were just as likely to "underperform" in districts with a high African-American population, for example, as those without. A few case studies (using Congressional District demographic data here):
* Rep. John Fleming of Louisiana -- whose 6th district is 34.7% African-American -- underperformed just as badly as Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana's 1st district, which has less than half as many African-Americans (15.56%).
* Same with Alabama's 3rd district (32.24% African-American) and 4th (4.8%).
* Both of the underperforming GOP reps in North Carolina -- Rep. Virginia Foxx (NC-5) and Rep. Pat McHenry (NC-10) -- are in districts with less than 9% African-American voters, but Rep. Joe Wilson in neighboring South Carolina (SC-2) underperformed in a district that's 27% African-American.
What about the other side of the coin -- the 35 Congressional Democrats who failed to match the margins Obama achieved in their districts, like Rep. Hines above? Only five Southerners fell in this camp, concentrated in three states: Rep. Scott (GA-13; -5 from Obama's total); Rep. Connolly (VA-12; -3); Rep. Grayson (FL-8; -2); Rep. Hastings (FL-23; -2); and Rep. Moran (VA-8; -1).
In other words, while only 14% of the underperforming Congressional Democrats in 2008 were in the South, 56% of the underperforming Republicans were.
Maybe the GOP didn't have such an easy time of it in the South last year after all.
But many Republicans who ran for Congress in the South likely wouldn't agree.
Last week, the Swing State Project posted an excellent survey of Congressional "underperformers" in the 2008 elections -- candidates running for a U.S. House seat who did worse than their party's presidential nominee in the same Congressional district.
For example: Rep. Jim Himes, a Democrat in Connecticut's 4th district, won by only four percentage points last November. But Barack Obama won in his district by 20 -- a difference of 16 points, making Rep. Himes the biggest "underperformer" in the nation among Congressional Democratic candidates last year.
On the Republican side, 23 GOP Congressional candidates across the country similarly "underperformed" when compared to how John McCain fared in their districts. Most interesting of all, the majority of the Republicans' close shaves in Congress -- 13 of the 23 -- were in the South. Here's a chart I've compiled of Republican Southern "underperformers" in 2008:
What does it mean? Each case is unique in some way; as Swing State Project writer DavidNYC points out, many of the most vulnerable GOP representatives were first-term representatives.
Taking a broader lens, one could also say these numbers reflect the willingness of Southerners to vote for Democrats for lower-level offices, but not for president -- especially white voters, perhaps, with an African-American candidate.
Another perspective would be that 2008 showed that the Southern GOP "brand" is not nearly as solid as many suggest, and the region remains highly politically competitive.
One interesting sidenote: I thought part of the issue might be race, and the degree to which Obama had coattails in a Congressional election. But race turned out not to be a big factor in this case. Republican candidates were just as likely to "underperform" in districts with a high African-American population, for example, as those without. A few case studies (using Congressional District demographic data here):
* Rep. John Fleming of Louisiana -- whose 6th district is 34.7% African-American -- underperformed just as badly as Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana's 1st district, which has less than half as many African-Americans (15.56%).
* Same with Alabama's 3rd district (32.24% African-American) and 4th (4.8%).
* Both of the underperforming GOP reps in North Carolina -- Rep. Virginia Foxx (NC-5) and Rep. Pat McHenry (NC-10) -- are in districts with less than 9% African-American voters, but Rep. Joe Wilson in neighboring South Carolina (SC-2) underperformed in a district that's 27% African-American.
What about the other side of the coin -- the 35 Congressional Democrats who failed to match the margins Obama achieved in their districts, like Rep. Hines above? Only five Southerners fell in this camp, concentrated in three states: Rep. Scott (GA-13; -5 from Obama's total); Rep. Connolly (VA-12; -3); Rep. Grayson (FL-8; -2); Rep. Hastings (FL-23; -2); and Rep. Moran (VA-8; -1).
In other words, while only 14% of the underperforming Congressional Democrats in 2008 were in the South, 56% of the underperforming Republicans were.
Maybe the GOP didn't have such an easy time of it in the South last year after all.
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Chris Kromm
Chris Kromm is executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies and publisher of the Institute's online magazine, Facing South.