Southern Politics: The Senate

It's October, and across the South the sights and sounds of fall and football fill the air. And politics: in the coming weeks, Facing South we'll be taking a closer look at the brewing battles shaping up for November. Today we start with the U.S. Senate.

This weekend, polls came out revealing that the South's two tight Senate races are even tighter. In Tennessee, Mason-Dixon poll released on Sunday showed that Democratic Rep. Harold Ford is in a "virtual tie" with Republican Bob Corker:

In Tennessee, in the open seat currently held by majority leader Bill Frist, Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. and Republican Bob Corker are in a virtual tie. Ford is supported by 43 percent of likely voters and Corker is supported by 42 percent. Only 1 percent support a third party candidate and 14 percent are undecided. The poll was conducted for the Memphis Commercial Appeal and the Chattanooga Times Free Press.

The Ford campaign will be most encouraged by the "favorable" numbers their candidate is showing:

Ford is viewed favorably by more Tennessee voters, 44 percent, than is Corker, 38 percent, and less unfavorably, 30 percent to Corker's 35 percent.

As for specific constituencies, both campaigns have good news -- Ford, his appeal to African-American and female voters; Corker, his strong showing with independents:

Ford has significant support among Black voters, where he is ahead of Corker 91 percent to 3 percent. Corker leads among White voters by a 49 percent to 35 percent margin. And there is a significant gender gap as well. Ford leads among women, 47 percent to 38 percent but Corker leads among men, 46 percent to 39 percent. Independent voters in this poll give Corker the nod by a 43 percent to 33 percent margin but 23 percent of them are still undecided.

Looking over to Virginia, Democrats were also pleased by a MSNBC/McClatchy poll which shows veteran Jim Webb pulling even with controversy-prone incumbent Sen. George Allen (R):

The poll finds Republican U.S. Sen. George Allen and Democrat Jim Webb are tied with both candidates having the support of 43 percent of those who responded. Twelve percent of those polled said they were undecided.

Two months ago, polls had Allen leading Webb by 16 percentage points.

Along with results from other national polls, this news has Democrats talking about something not considered possible a few months ago: reclaiming the U.S. Senate. A widely-circulated news story this morning by Steven Thomma makes just such a case, and argues that dissatisfaction with the Bush Administration's foreign policy -- Iraq in particular -- may be the main driver:

Aggravating those factors is the fact that several Republican strategies don't appear to be working well at this point:

• Voters who don't like Bush are taking it out on the Republican candidates, regardless of whether Republicans run from or with the president.

• Voters in all but one state rank Iraq as their top concern, above terrorism, despite Bush's campaign to link the unpopular war to the more broadly supported effort against terrorism.

• A majority of voters think Iraq is going badly. Those who think that support Democrats by solid margins.

• The fact that Democrats haven't spelled out clear alternatives on Iraq -- a main complaint from Republicans -- does not seem to matter.

Either way, the fact that control of the U.S. Senate could hinge on the outcome of two Southern races reinforces the notion that the South is still a critical political battleground.