Future of Congress to be decided in the South?

Are there still Democrats who think the party doesn't need a "Southern Strategy"? If so, the 2006 mid-term elections will likely cause them to think again, with control of Congress in the balance and key contests likely to be decided in the South.

The South's central role is clearest in the battle for the Senate, which Hotline nicely summed up yesterday: "If GOPers keep TN and VA, they could keep control of the Senate." Out of the four Senate races Hotline called "the four purest toss-ups" last week -- Missouri, New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia -- it's the two Southern states (and the border state of Missouri) where Democrats are facing the toughest battles.

Here's a snapshot of where these races stand, according to a Bloomberg/LA Times poll released today:

TENNESSEE
Corker (R): 49%
Ford (D): 44%
10% of the electorate is undecided.

VIRGINIA
Webb (D): 47%
Allen (R): 44%
13% of the electorate is undecided.

MISSOURI
Talent (R): 48%
McCaskill (D): 45%
10% of the electorate is undecided.

The Republicans clearly view Tennessee as one of the most critical races, judging from the blistering attack ads unleashed this week that center on African-American Democratic candidate Harold Ford's supposed affinity for white women, which former Republican Senator Bill Cohen called "a very serious appeal to racist sentiment" and similar to Jesse Helms' infamous campaigns in North Carolina.

Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo has been following the Tennessee fallout; even Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman has insisted he'd like to take down the anti-Ford ads but can't, claiming that -- despite the RNC logo appearing on the spots -- they are "independent" and the RNC has no control. This morning, Mark Schmitt at TPM Cafe takes it one step further, noting that the "independent" RNC ads are remarkably similar to GOP candidate Bob Corker's own ads, suggesting a higher level of "coordination."

As for the lower chamber, the 10 House races in the South we pointed to on Monday continue to be among the most closely-followed in the country. For example, a new Survey USA poll shows that Kentucky District 4, which "leans Republican," is still a nail-biter, with Rep. Geoff Davis (R) leading Ken Lucas (D) by only two points, 46% to 44%.

What's causing the South to come into play for Democrats, and will it carry through to election day? There are lots of factors, but two of the biggest appear to be Iraq and the disenchantment of conservative "values voters," especially in the wake of the Foley/page scandal.

The bad news from Iraq is unlikely to let up over the next two weeks. With the Foley scandal moving off the front pages, the impact on "value voter" turnout is less certain and could turn around. Although, as the Los Angeles Times noted last week, new events have kept the war within Christian conservative circles at a high pitch:

A recent incident that upset social conservatives involved remarks by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice last week. With First Lady Laura Bush looking on, Rice swore in Mark R. Dybul as U.S. global AIDS coordinator while his partner, Jason Claire, held the Bible. Claire's mother was in the audience, and Rice referred to her as Dybul's "mother-in-law."

"The Republican Party is taking pro-family conservatives for granted," said Mike Mears, executive director of the political action committee of Concerned Women for America, which promotes biblical values. "What Secretary Rice did just the other day is going to anger quite a few people."