Lock on the South

What’s at Stake

The American South, which holds 155 of the nation’s 538 electoral votes, is the nation’s largest region and arguably its most politically powerful. President Bill Clinton won in 1992 in large part because he was able to divide the South, which had been a GOP stronghold in presidential elections. If Clinton splits the South again, he’ll be re-elected. If Bob Dole takes the South solidly, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980, winning every Southern state but Georgia, and 1984 and as George Bush did in 1988, Republicans will retake the White House.

Another question is whether the Republicans’ 1994 takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives was a one-shot deal or the beginning of a new era in American politics. To retake the House, Democrats need to gain at least 20 seats. Either party gains that many seats in about half the elections. This year, almost half the open seats, or seats with no incumbent candidate — 21 of 47 — are in the South. In addition, the South has at least 19 vulnerable incumbents in both parties.

In the U.S. Senate, the GOP currently has a 53-47 majority. Democrats need six seats to gain control; Republicans need seven to give them the 60 seats needed to prevent Democratic filibusters. This year, about one-third of the Senate seats up for election are in Southern states, including four open seats. An unusually high number of them — nine — are competitive.

In the presidential, House, and Senate contests, the South holds the key.

 

Taken Seriously

The catbird seat is not the South’s traditional place in American politics. For most of the post-Civil War era, the Democratic monopoly below the Mason-Dixon Line kept either party from taking Southern voters seriously. It was the South’s post-World War II boom in GOPism — for racial and economic reasons — that made the country pay more attention to the region.

Of more basic significance is that for roughly two centuries the Southern states maintained a hostile stance toward the rest of the country, spending much of their political capital defending “peculiar institutions” — first slavery, then segregation. This adverse relationship to the rest of the nation isolated the region politically. Although Southerners wielded great power in Congress for more than a century after 1865, Southern candidates for president, such as Richard Russell of Georgia, never left the starting gate.

When institutional segregation collapsed in the South, followed by segregationist politics, Southern politicians could become national politicians. In 1976, Georgia’s Jimmy Carter won the presidency, followed in 1992 by Arkansas’ Clinton.

As a result of these changes, the modern South — black and white, Democratic and Republican — is a key battleground for both parties, and never more so than this November.

 

Looking Presidential

In 1992, the double-Southern Clinton-Gore ticket won five Southern states (Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee) with a total of 47 electoral votes. Bush had to spend more time and money in the South, supposedly a GOP stronghold, just to win the states he did.

Clinton may be able to repeat his Southern strategy of dividing the GOP’s Southern base this year. Despite his birthplace, in virtually every Gallup Poll conducted since he took office, Clinton has been weakest in the South. Nevertheless, this summer’s polls found that Clinton’s approval rating was well above Dole’s in the South and higher than in any other region.

If the South remains competitive, as many pundits predict, Dole will have to spend much of his time and money in the South.

 

The House — Vulnerable Democrats

In 1994, Newt Gingrich won the House speaker chair in part because of the GOP’s 17-seat gain in the South. Indeed, for the first time since Reconstruction, the South’s congressional delegation had a Republican majority, augmented by five party switches since the ’94 election.

A Gallup Poll in mid-June showed that voters preferred Democrats to Republicans 50 percent to 43 percent, though voting doesn’t reflect stated affiliation. The numbers were weaker in the South, but the Democrats still had a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Republicans.

The GOP has an advantage, however, in that 17 of the 21 Southern House seats with no running incumbent are currently held by Democrats. At least 13 of these open seats could go Republican: one each in Mississippi, North Carolina, and Virginia, two each in Alabama, Arkansas, and Florida, and four in Texas. Retiring Democrats in Florida, Tennessee, and Texas are leaving safe Democratic seats.

Only four Republican congressmen in the South aren’t running for re-election. Two are leaving safe GOP seats in Tennessee and Texas. Two others, however, are leaving excellent targets for Democratic takeovers —Jimmy Hayes (Louisiana 7) and Greg Laughlin (Texas 14), a party-switcher who was defeated in the Republican primary by renegade Ron Paul.

In addition to the open seats, there are 11 vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the South — one each in Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, two in Georgia, and three in Texas.

Sanford Bishop (Georgia 2), Cynthia McKinney (Georgia 11), and Cleo Fields (Louisiana 4) are African Americans in trouble because of recent court decisions overturning the redistricting that created districts with a majority of minority voters (so-called “majority-minority” districts). Similar litigation is creating problems for other black incumbents in Florida, North Carolina, and Texas.

Republican incumbents who could lose this year include Jay Dickey (Arkansas 4), Charlie Norwood (Georgia 10), Ed Whitfield (Kentucky 1), Ron Lewis (Kentucky 2), David Funderburk (North Carolina 2), Fred Heineman (North Carolina 4), Zach Wamp (Tennessee 3), and Steve Stockman (Texas 9).

 

The Senate — Republican Party Hearty

There are nine competitive U.S. Senate races in the South. The open seats:

■ Alabama. Incumbent Howell Heflin (D) is retiring. The early favorite to replace Heflin is Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R), who is battling Democratic ex-state Senator Roger Bedford (D). Polls show a tilt to the GOP. Leans Republican.

■ Arkansas. The Whitewater guilty verdict against former Governor Jim Guy Tucker (D) has thrown the U.S. Senate race to succeed David Pryor (D) into disarray. When Lieutenant Governor Mike Huckabee (R), the GOP’s ex-Senate candidate, assumed the governorship, the GOP found a new nominee, U.S. Representative Tim Hutchinson. But Hutchinson didn’t inherit the popularity of Huckabee, who had been leading in the polls by as much as 11 points. Democratic nominee Attorney General Winston Bryant (D) has the edge. Leans Democratic.

■ Georgia. Sam Nunn (D) is retiring. Democratic Secretary of State Max Cleland, a disabled Vietnam veteran and President Carter’s Veterans Affairs chief, is ahead in the polls. For the GOP, ’94 gubernatorial nominee Guy Millner an abortion foe, beat out pro-choice Republican Johnny Isakson in the primary. Leans Democratic.

■ Louisiana. Bennett Johnston (D) is retiring. The polls show the strongest candidates in the non-partisan primary are two moderate Democrats, ’94 gubernatorial contender Mary Landrieu, followed by Attorney General Richard Ieyoub. Republican votes are split six ways, although some of the GOPers may back out. Leans Democratic.

 

In addition to these open seats, there are five Republican incumbents who are not as safe as they could be.

■ Kentucky. U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R) is favored over ex- Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear (D), but for an incumbent he has a lukewarm lead in the polls. McConnell has $2.8 million on hand and the cross-party backing of ex-Governor Wallace Wilkinson (D). Beshear has ’95 winner Governor Paul Patton (D) and a revitalized Democratic party in his corner. Leans Republican.

■ North Carolina. Every six years, the Democrats get all frothed up to beat right-wing Senator Jesse Helms (R) and they almost do it. This year, Harvey Gantt (D), who got 47 percent against Helms in ’90, won a hard-fought primary to take on Helms again. It is likely to be another close race. Helms’ campaign isn’t as well-organized as it’s been in the past, and the electorate is younger and more cosmopolitan. But recent history suggests another narrow victory for Senator No. Leans Republican.

■ South Carolina. U.S. Senator Strom Thurmond (R) has only one problem: his age. He’s 93, and most voters think he shouldn’t run again. But since he is running, most Sandlappers say they’ll vote for him. Thurmond’s big advantage is seniority. He easily defeated his primary opponent, two-term state Representative Harold Worley (R). Thurmond’s opponent is millionaire textiles heir Elliott Close (D), who defeated black photographer Cecil Williams. This could be a sleeper. Leans Republican.

■ Texas. Phil Gramm (R) was weakened by his poor race for president, and his Democratic opponent, Hispanic teacher Victor Morales, is getting a lot of sympathetic press. Gramm should win handily, but he might not. Likely Republican.

■ Virginia. Republican John Warner easily defeated his right-wing challenger, former Office of Management and Budget chief Jim Miller, whose backers were fire and brimstone conservatives out to punish Warner for opposing Oliver North in 1994. John Warner is favored in the November battle to defeat his wealthy namesake, Mark Warner (D), a former state Democratic party chairman. Likely Republican.

 

Dems with Legs?

If the GOP trend of 1994 resurfaces this fall, the White House and both houses of Congress are likely to be in Republican hands for the first time since the early 1950s. This could usher in a new era in American politics in which government policy is determined by the right, not the left, for the first time since the 1920s.

If, however, the Democratic comeback that began in the ’95 elections still has legs this November, Clinton will win a second term, the House may go back to the Democrats, as it was for 40 years, and the Senate probably will stay in Republican hands. Democrats, however, will be able to filibuster GOP bills.