Election 2008: Final Southern Swing State Rankings
Whatever happens today, there is no question that Election 2008 is big for the South.
Yesterday, Barack Obama spent his last day before Election Day making his final case in three states: Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. That -- and the dramatic way in which the Obama campaign has put the South in play for Democrats -- is historic in and of itself.
I'll be writing more about why this election has been special for the South; for now, here's where the states stand in our final 2008 Southern Swing State Rankings.
SOUTHERN SWINGABILITY RANKINGS* as of 11/4 -- final edition
1 - North Carolina - Obama leads +.5
A state that hasn't voted for a Democratic president since 1976, it remains one of the tightest -- if not the tightest -- races in the country. You can see what I and other "major political observers" think about how NC will go here.
2 - Florida - Obama leads +1.5
Obama has gone "all in" in Florida, dispatching his top staff to coordinate get-out-the-vote. McCain has fought back hard.
3 - Georgia - McCain leads +3.7
McCain will likely hold on -- but the fact that Obama has brought it this close shows how much his campaign has changed the map.
4 - Virginia - Obama leads +5.4
Colorado and VA are the two key states Obama wants to win -- and since VA polls close first, the historically red state could be decisive.
5 - West Virginia - McCain leads +10.5
Often viewed as a swing state, race has been key in keeping Obama from seriously contesting WV, despite coming close in some polls.
* The Institute's Swingability Rankings measure states by how close they are in the presidential race and the degree to which they could "swing" either way. Rankings are based on the polling trend averages at Pollster.com, the state projections at 538.com and undisclosed biases.
Yesterday, Barack Obama spent his last day before Election Day making his final case in three states: Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. That -- and the dramatic way in which the Obama campaign has put the South in play for Democrats -- is historic in and of itself.
I'll be writing more about why this election has been special for the South; for now, here's where the states stand in our final 2008 Southern Swing State Rankings.
SOUTHERN SWINGABILITY RANKINGS* as of 11/4 -- final edition
1 - North Carolina - Obama leads +.5
A state that hasn't voted for a Democratic president since 1976, it remains one of the tightest -- if not the tightest -- races in the country. You can see what I and other "major political observers" think about how NC will go here.
2 - Florida - Obama leads +1.5
Obama has gone "all in" in Florida, dispatching his top staff to coordinate get-out-the-vote. McCain has fought back hard.
3 - Georgia - McCain leads +3.7
McCain will likely hold on -- but the fact that Obama has brought it this close shows how much his campaign has changed the map.
4 - Virginia - Obama leads +5.4
Colorado and VA are the two key states Obama wants to win -- and since VA polls close first, the historically red state could be decisive.
5 - West Virginia - McCain leads +10.5
Often viewed as a swing state, race has been key in keeping Obama from seriously contesting WV, despite coming close in some polls.
* The Institute's Swingability Rankings measure states by how close they are in the presidential race and the degree to which they could "swing" either way. Rankings are based on the polling trend averages at Pollster.com, the state projections at 538.com and undisclosed biases.
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Chris Kromm
Chris Kromm is executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies and publisher of the Institute's online magazine, Facing South.