Will Obama have coattails in the South?

The notion that Sen. Barack Obama's presidential candidacy will suddenly throw the entire South into contested territory may be far-fetched. The Rothenberg Political Report, for example, argues that the 2008 election map will look pretty much like 2000 and 2004 (although he thinks North Carolina and Virginia are possible swing states).

What's more likely is that Obama, by drawing large turnout from newly-energized African-American and young voters, could shake up down-ticket state races in Southern states. Stateline.org takes a look at Obama's possible coattails in six Deep South states: Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina and South Carolina.

We won't know the "Obama effect" on state office elections in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi -- three states where big African-American turnout helped the Illinois senator -- because they don't have state office elections this year. But it could still be a major factor in congressional races, like Sen. Mary Landrieu's (D) bid for re-election in Louisiana.

Obama will have a bigger impact in Georgia and the Carolinas, even if he doesn't win those states. In North Carolina, Obama's boost to the Democratic electorate could have a major impact on a tight governor's race and the battle over Sen. Elizabeth Dole's U.S. Senate seat:

Only three of every four people who voted for president in North Carolina's Democratic primary also voted in lower contests, such as the labor commissioner race. Still, the total Democratic turnout was three times as high as the Republican turnout, so one can expect that many of the new voters will have an impact in the fall as well, said John Davis, president of the North Carolina Forum for Research and Economic Education, a business and political research group. "Obama's impact down-ballot will be huge for Democrats, if he is able to sustain his momentum," Davis said.

In Georgia, the effect could be especially noticeable at the county level:

"Georgia went big for Obama in the primary, and I know there is a lot of excitement about him in certain areas of the state - metro Atlanta, definitely," said Kerwin Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University in Kennesaw, Ga. "So I could see it really helping out" in races for county commissions and school boards.