The 2008 Dem primary: Race and age were the biggest dividers
As the white-knuckle roller-coaster ride of the 2008 Democratic primary finally coasts to a stop, The New York Times offers a neat graphic display of how the voting unfolded in each state.
Using exit poll data, the Times lets you sort which demographic groups went for Clinton vs. Obama in each state; the criteria are gender, race (only black and white), age, income and education.
The results are fascinating, and reveal an interesting truth about the primaries: race and age were the two biggest dividers in the 2008 Democratic electorate:
* RACE: Sen. Obama carried the African-American vote in every single primary state, while Sen. Clinton carried the white vote in all but eight states.
* AGE: In the under-30 vote, Obama carried all but five states. He also won every state in age groups up to 59, although he only narrowly took the 45-59 group. Clinton, on the other hand, took all but six states in the 60+ age group.
As Facing South noted a year ago, the two issues are related: demographically, the younger the population -- including the voting population -- in the U.S., the more racially diverse it is.
But what about issues like gender and income? They were factors, but the exit polls show they weren't as big.
* GENDER: Clinton clearly did better with women voters -- but Obama also won the majority of women in 16 geographically diverse states. Obama took the male vote in all but nine states -- but there were another nine states where Clinton just barely lost men voters.
* INCOME: Income is especially interesting. The most evenly-divided demographic in the entire country are voters making less than $15,000 a year -- families in or near poverty. This group went for Clinton in 12 states, and Obama in 12 states.
Those making more than $15,000 trended towards Clinton, but Obama's showing was still respectable: Obama won the $15,000-$30,000 income group in 12 states, and the $30,000-$50,000 group in 16 states (six of those were Southern states with high African-American populations, but the rest weren't).
As we turn towards the general election, the question is: how will these demographics break down come November?
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Chris Kromm
Chris Kromm is executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies and publisher of the Institute's online magazine, Facing South.