Small boosts in African-American, youth vote could turn states Democratic

There's a long-standing debate in Democratic Party circles about how to win over "swing states."

One view -- which usually comes from moderates and conservatives, like those in the once-influential Democratic Leadership Council -- argues the trick is to move to the political center to lure wavering Soccer Moms and Reagan Democrats.

The other side, coming from the party's more liberal/left wing, believes the winning formula is to hold firm on a solidly progressive agenda, and mobilize more voters who embrace that agenda -- like young voters and African-Americans.

The Chicago Tribune today gives ammunition to the progressives, showing that even modest gains in youth and African-American voter turnout could turn nine swing states Democratic in 2008 -- including three in the South:

If Obama could inspire just 10 percent more Democratic voters under 30 to go to the polls than did four years ago, that alone could be enough to switch Iowa and New Mexico from red to blue, the analysis suggests.

Just a 10 percent increase in turnout among blacks would make up more than 40 percent of George W. Bush's 2004 victory margin in Ohio and more than 20 percent of the Republicans' 2004 victory margin in Florida.

Turnout increases of 10 percent of young voters and African-Americans could virtually eliminate the Republicans' 2004 victory margin in Ohio and go a long way toward closing the gap in Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Virginia and -- a bit more of a stretch -- possibly North Carolina.

Since this strategy -- registering huge numbers of new young and African-American voters -- is largely the strategy Obama is using, we'll find out in November if they're right.

One curious omission from the list: Georgia, where Obama is sinking major resources for ad buys and field offices to reach new voters -- and where the GOP fears Republican-turned-Libertarian Bob Barr might be a spoiler (not a factor in the Tribune's analysis).