Questionable media coverage of new hurricane-climate findings

A new study by scientist Tom Knutson and colleagues offers a little bit of good news for the hurricane-battered South.

A meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, N.J., Knutson says that global warming isn't the culprit behind the recent increase in Atlantic hurricanes -- and that warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes overall as well as those making landfall. That's a significant finding coming from Knutson, because he previously raised concerns that global warming would lead to a jump in hurricanes.

Knutson's latest findings were reported by Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press. It was interesting to see how the AP article was treated by some of the outlets that ran it.

For instance, the newspaper I read over my coffee every morning -- the Raleigh News & Observer -- published much of Borenstein's story, including concerns that other scientists have raised about the weaknesses in Knutson's work. But the print edition left out this arguably critical passage that appeared in the original:

It's not all good news from Knutson's study, however. His computer model also forecasts that hurricanes and tropical storms will be wetter and fiercer. Rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane should jump by 37 percent and wind strength should increase by about 2 percent, Knutson's study says.

And Knutson said this study significantly underestimates the increase in wind strength.

While the N&O's online edition did include that passage, this information is just as important for those of us who pay to get our news on paper.

Thanks to Jim Warren of N.C. WARN for bringing this to my attention. Warren also points out that the AP story's frame is "far different" from the reports on the Knutson study that ran in National Geographic and Science Daily, which he observes are "more balanced about the likelihood of more intensity in storms that do occur, and the overall uncertainty about the new findings."