Campaign 08: Has Iowa made South Carolina the decider?
The campaign '08 media hounds are off to New Hampshire, but the big story coming out of the Iowa caucuses is that it puts the South -- specifically South Carolina -- in excellent position to decide our next president.
Both Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Barack Obama have a strong shot at winning the upcoming primaries in South Carolina (Jan. 19 for Republicans, a week later for Democrats).
And thanks to their triumphs in Iowa, that means both have a strong shot at going 2-for-3 in the first three caucuses -- and possibly delivering a knock-out punch to the other candidates.
On the Democratic side: Most polls show Sen. Hillary Clinton and Obama running neck-and-neck in South Carolina -- but Obama clearly has the momentum. Last month's Oprah-palooza which drew 29,000 cheering fans boosted Obama's support among African-American voters, who make up half the state's Democratic primary vote.
But it's not just the state's black vote that favors Obama: he's recently solidified his racial cross-over appeal -- already proven in mostly-white Iowa -- by scoring big endorsements from South Carolina establishment Dems, including former Gov. Jim Hodges and former state party chairmen Joe Erwin and Dick Harpootlian.
On the Republican side: South Carolina is Huckabee's to lose. Since December, polls have shown Huckabee taking a commanding lead in the state, capitalizing on the state's strong religious conservative base and filling the vacuum left by the fading Giuliani and Thompson campaigns.
So just like Obama, Huckabee finds himself in an enviable position: whatever happens "up North" in New Hampshire, success in Iowa almost guarantees the former governor will win 2/3 of the early primary season.
On both sides: South Carolina victories could also help Huckabee and Obama another way: thinning the field. It's hard to see how, for example, John Edwards, who won the S.C. primary in 2004 but hasn't found traction there this time, or Fred Thompson, whose natural base should be Southern conservative "values voters," could stay in the race as strong contenders after losing in South Carolina.
If one or both dropped out after the S.C. primaries, that would give Huckabee and Obama a much clearer shot at bigger targets named Clinton, Romney and McCain.
After the South Carolina primaries, both parties will pick up their electoral circus tents, never to be seen in the safely-GOP state again.
But right now, Iowa may have just turned South Carolina into the decisive primary of Election 2008.
Both Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Barack Obama have a strong shot at winning the upcoming primaries in South Carolina (Jan. 19 for Republicans, a week later for Democrats).
And thanks to their triumphs in Iowa, that means both have a strong shot at going 2-for-3 in the first three caucuses -- and possibly delivering a knock-out punch to the other candidates.
On the Democratic side: Most polls show Sen. Hillary Clinton and Obama running neck-and-neck in South Carolina -- but Obama clearly has the momentum. Last month's Oprah-palooza which drew 29,000 cheering fans boosted Obama's support among African-American voters, who make up half the state's Democratic primary vote.But it's not just the state's black vote that favors Obama: he's recently solidified his racial cross-over appeal -- already proven in mostly-white Iowa -- by scoring big endorsements from South Carolina establishment Dems, including former Gov. Jim Hodges and former state party chairmen Joe Erwin and Dick Harpootlian.
On the Republican side: South Carolina is Huckabee's to lose. Since December, polls have shown Huckabee taking a commanding lead in the state, capitalizing on the state's strong religious conservative base and filling the vacuum left by the fading Giuliani and Thompson campaigns.So just like Obama, Huckabee finds himself in an enviable position: whatever happens "up North" in New Hampshire, success in Iowa almost guarantees the former governor will win 2/3 of the early primary season.
On both sides: South Carolina victories could also help Huckabee and Obama another way: thinning the field. It's hard to see how, for example, John Edwards, who won the S.C. primary in 2004 but hasn't found traction there this time, or Fred Thompson, whose natural base should be Southern conservative "values voters," could stay in the race as strong contenders after losing in South Carolina.
If one or both dropped out after the S.C. primaries, that would give Huckabee and Obama a much clearer shot at bigger targets named Clinton, Romney and McCain.
After the South Carolina primaries, both parties will pick up their electoral circus tents, never to be seen in the safely-GOP state again.
But right now, Iowa may have just turned South Carolina into the decisive primary of Election 2008.
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Chris Kromm
Chris Kromm is executive director of the Institute for Southern Studies and publisher of the Institute's online magazine, Facing South.