The immigration debate: It's about the future of politics

U.S. News & World Report observes today that the media is "reveling" in the bi-partisan immigration reform bill being pushed by unlikely allies like Sens. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), with support from President Bush.Outside Washington, the lions and lambs aren't getting too cozy yet. While beltway pundits are applauding the "rare Capitol Hill demonstration of bipartisanship," advocacy groups on the left and right are firing up their email lists and fax machines in opposition -- immigrant rights groups, because the bill creates a group of second-class "guest workers" who will be kicked out once businesses don't want them anymore; anti-immigrant groups, because it "rewards illegal behavior" and in cases amounts to dreaded "amnesty."Which begs the question: why would Bush and leading Democrats push an issue that seems destined to alienate key elements of their base, with 2008 just around the corner? A small piece in the New York Times this week offers some useful background: it has a lot to do with the future of politics.The Times notes that, as has often happened in this country, there's a large gap between young and old voters. But the Times also points out that now, there's a new layer to the "generation gap" -- it's also a race gap. Older voters tend to be whiter, while the future voters of the country are more Latino, African-American and Asian-American:

More than 20 percent of children in the United States either are foreign-born or have a parent who was born abroad. Nearly half the children under age 5 are Hispanic, black or Asian. [...] According to the latest figures, 80 percent of Americans over age 60 are non-Hispanic whites, compared with only 60 percent among those in their 20s and 30s, and 58 percent among people younger than 20.

We've written a lot at Facing South about the South's fast-changing demographics and what it means for Southern politics (and by extension national politics, since it will dramatically increase the South's already-significant clout). The Times drives these points home again:

The changes have potential implications for national politics ... Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee have recorded the greatest percentage gains in their Hispanic population since 2000, with the biggest numerical gains, predictably, registered by California, Texas and Florida.

How does this relate to the debate firing up around immigration reform? It means that both parties can see the writing on the wall -- and no doubt want to be remembered as the ones that gave citizenship to several million Latino and immigrant voters, no matter how flawed the legislation.An interesting sidenote: the Times also speculates that, on the state level, the generational race gap may be deepening the divide over political priorities, such as the willingness of older white voters to support public education. By way of evidence, they note that ethnically diverse states are seeing major battles over school spending develop; by contrast, "the three most homogeneous states — Maine, Vermont and West Virginia — spent the highest proportion of their gross state product on public education."UPDATE: For more on why Democrats see opportunity in immigration reform, see the analysis by Ruy Teixiera of Donkey Rising. The focus is on Western states, but given the explosive growth in the South, the same could be said there.