Florida bids to change 2008 elections

Florida decided the 2000 presidential elections. Now, a bill that passed the state's house last week 115-1 could boost the Sunshine State's impact in 2008.

HB 537 calls on Florida to move its presidential primaries to seven days after New Hampshire's or February 5, whichever is sooner. The Senate version of the bill is stalled in committee, but the cause received a major boost this week when Jim Greer, state Republican Party chair, announced his support (Democrats have been pushing the move all along). As Greer wrote in a letter to county and grassroots GOP leaders:

"In the past, Republicans and Democrats who have sought their party's nomination have not been forced to answer some of the questions that are most important to Florida's voters," Greer wrote ... "Other voters ultimately determined the victors, not Floridians, even though Florida's electorate is more diverse and better representative of the nation than many of these states."

Greer makes a good point. Florida is the 4th-largest and 9th fastest-growing state in the country. Florida's demographics also represent the U.S. better than, say, Iowa or New Hampshire: Florida is 80.4% white (compared to 80.2% nationally); 15.7% black (compared to 12.8%); and 19.5% Latino (compared to 14.4%).

Florida has its anomalies, such as the large retiree and Cuban vote, but both have proved volatile in recent years, giving neither party a strong upper hand.

This helps make Florida a fiercely competitive state, which may be why both parties support making it a bigger factor in the primaries. As Marc Cooper of The Nation wrote in 2004:

Florida remains, by all accounts, the most evenly divided state in a deeply polarized America. "Florida is 40/40--40 percent Democratic, 40 percent Republican, with that 20 percent swing vote in the middle, and most of that in the middle of the state just full of registered Independents and ticket-splitters," says Congressman Alcee Hastings, who describes his home state as the New Peoria. "We now so closely mirror America that national marketers use our central corridor for consumer testing. In November it's going to come down again to every single vote."

Clearly 2008 will be no exception.